VALUE BETTING EXPLAINED

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If you are a newcomer to the world of sports betting, you may have come across the term ‘value betting’ - and been a bit baffled by the concept too. It is another of those phrases that seem only to mean something to people who have been enveloped in the world of betting for a while.

In actual fact, value betting is a good way for punters to get one over on the bookies and make some decent profits. It does require a bit of planning, some time, and plenty of thinking, though. So, let's get down to how value bets actually work.   

So what actually is a value bet? Once you have a value bet explained to you it really is quite simple. It might not seem like it at first, however, so pay close attention. Value betting is a concept that borrows quite heavily from financial investment in the stock market. It centres on an event’s probability of occurring. If a bookie has determined that an event’s probability of occurring is less than it is in reality, then that is where the ‘value’ lies. This is the key to having a value bet explained.

A successful bettor will be able to spot when a bookie has set the odds for a particular event at too high a level. This is why expert sporting knowledge is so vital to a successful value bet strategy. Specialist knowledge massively improves your chances of being able to spot those markets where there is a discrepancy between what is likely to happen and the odds that the bookies have given it. We’ll look at some ways you can assess probability next.

Assessing The Bookmakers Odds 

The key to any value bet strategy is the ability to accurately assess probability. Once you have had a value bet explained to you this becomes very clear. This is why sporting knowledge is so important because it is only by being an expert on a sport that you can hope to assess probability accurately.

If we use the example of tossing a coin, we can illuminate the process of assessing probability for you. When you toss a coin there are two possible outcomes – heads or tails. This gives a probability of 50% for each outcome. If we use decimal odds, then the likelihood of each outcome is one divided by 0.5, which gives us decimal odds of 2.00, or if you prefer British style fractional odds, 1/1 or evens.

This means that if you saw a bookie offering odds of 2/1 on the coin landing as a head you would jump at the chance to bet on it. Now you have had this very simple type of value bet explained you should be able to grasp the fundamentals of a good value bet strategy.

Obviously, now that you have had a value bet explained to you, you will hopefully understand that you need to be able to read bookies’ odds properly. Without being able to understand odds, you have no hope of being able to accurately assess relative probabilities and enjoy success.

In the UK and the Republic of Ireland, the traditional way of writing odds is as a fraction. You will have seen odds written like 2/1 or 5/3. This expresses the likelihood that the bookie has given to an event taking place. The bigger the first number, the less likely the event is to happen. As a result, these odds can appear confusing to newcomers to betting, but you will find that they soon make sense when you get used to them.

The other way you may see odds written is as decimal odds. This is the method used in continental European countries such as Germany and France. Many people who have a value bet strategy prefer to use decimal odds, due to the fact that they can be easier to understand. They also make it simpler to calculate what your winnings from a bet will be.

Now that you have had a value bet explained to you, you should be able to grasp the fundamentals of using this type of betting. A good value bet strategy is all about identifying where the bookies have made a mistake. As we have said repeatedly, this is where your sporting expertise is needed. But you also need patience and the willingness to spend some time checking bookmakers for their odds.

This means that you really need to have accounts with several different bookmakers if you want your value bet strategy to work. Limiting your research to just one bookie will cut down your options. Anyone who has had a value bet explained will realise that the odds comparison is a huge part of being successful. Comparing odds from just one or two bookmakers will not give you sufficient opportunity to find the value you need.

Bookies do not very often make mistakes when it comes to assessing probability and protecting their profits with the odds they assign. The chances of just one bookie making enough errors of this kind to make your value bet strategy work are small, to say the least. You should aim to have accounts with as many bookies as possible if you want your value bet strategy to be successful.

• Choose the right bookie - no bookmaker will have any issues with your liquidity as long as they are winning. The problem comes in when you as the punter start to outsmart the house and show competence (against their favour) in your betting skills, with the profits to prove it. As soon as your activity is flagged, the bookmaker will probably restrict your account. Some bookies are more strict than others, so read the Ts & Cs of each before you dive in headfirst.
• Use Value Betting Software - Rather than plunging into your betting strategy blindsided, we recommend opting for an odds ‘calculator’ of sorts - one that will help you identify good odds. We do however advise not using every opportunity identified by the bot, purely because you could find your account suspended if your winnings sweep the floor against the favour of the house. You may have to pay to use this software, but we say if it mitigates losses at the end of the day, it's probably worth investing in value betting system software.
• Manage your bankroll wisely - It’s important to remember that value betting isn’t entirely risk-free. However, if you use the line grinding approach and place a large enough sample of a variety of bets, you could come out with a healthy profit. Place restrictions on your bets if you feel your wagering might get out of control and never place large bets to try and make up for losses. Remember, online gambling is supposed to be a form of entertainment, its certainly not a get-rich-quick scheme!

To understand the above long winded jargon here are few perfect examples of our bets at Value Bet Spain, along with simple explanations.    The good part for yourself at first, if you choose to subscribe to our Value Betting Service and copy our trades, then you know you are getting value and don't have to worry about the exact theory, that said, its good to learn and everything we do on the site is about giving you the knowledge, and you get to learn an incredible skillset that will provide you with a nice second income for years to come.